Venezuela in 2009

Those who try to separate politics from morality, never understand the two.

English Proverb

General information and opinions

One year is ending and unfortunately in recent months have raised facts that have been instrumental in the economic, political, social, forcing the country to take measures to give way to programs, actions, behavior that can guarantee be managed without affecting the actions the government has set out to achieve in the next year, many experts criticized by economists.

The interest of the paper is to present some views that are very important in determining the country awaits the next year according to information are handled praise

No doubt as Business Banking review Aristimuño Consulting Firm Herrera & Associates, more than ever dependent on oil revenues (94% of total exports) and to start the aftershocks of the collapse of oil prices at world, we see that our revenues will plummet this concept to be at a more rational international price for world consumption. Therefore, a national budget estimating a barrel oil to $ 60 is almost impossible in the current circumstances and distortions that force will be presented to reduce government spending and make appropriate adjustments resort overlooking the need to secure other sources financing of the budget based on raising taxes, reissue the debit and go to an expected devaluation by 25% to 30% on today's dollar officer, among other measures.

The distinguished economist Dr. Maza Zavala, gives us a statement that he should pay much attention for its scope, for what it represents for the country, that keeping the oil price to $ 48 or a similar one for us will be a catastrophe even at $ 60 the economy is not sustainable, because if there is no adjustment of imports each year the government imported 50 billion dollars, that price does not cover imports also need to service debt external are 10 or 12 billion dollars?, said economist Domingo Maza Zavala. He said the Venezuelan financial system is full of public values ​​and consequently increase their load means increased country risk "and on the other reduce the margin for credit with the production and investment?.

You should consider that Venezuela's economic structure reveals a country where nearly 60% of GDP is directly or indirectly related to oil, where the public sector contributes 30% of GDP and where 94% of exports of this country match this product.

For Jose Manuel Puente, during the first half of next year, the administration of President Hugo Chavez will use the resources owned by different funds from 25 to 30 billion dollars to cushion the fall in income. If oil does not rebound, says Bridge, take measures such as new taxes or exchange rate adjustment

Guia.com.ve brings the matter, which according to the IMF presented the Venezuelan economy in 2009 growth of only 2%, the third part of in 2008. What experts say about the future of oil prices and its influence in Venezuela? According to Goldman Sachs (GS) projection of medium-term price is U.S. $ 65 a barrel. The International Energy Agency projected U.S. oil prices averaged U.S. $ 112 for 2009, $ 74 for 2010 and $ 59 for 2020. According to Market Alphaville (Financial Times), Venezuela need an oil price above U.S. $ 90 to sustain its economy

For the economist and professor at the IESA, Pedro Palma, the decline in oil prices leads to a scenario where inflation, which in the last twelve months builds a jump of 36%, tend to be located over 40% in 2009. 'The dollar amount to 2.15 bolivars will decrease in an important way, at this point is settled 200 million dollars a day and that's not going to keep, "says Pedro Palma who participated in a forum organized by the IESA to explore the trends in the next year.

Immediately adds that if the government restricts the amount of foreign currency to 2.15 bolivars Cadivi delivery, increase imports are performed with the parallel exchange rate, which is priced much higher than official. If you choose to devalue the official exchange rate, the effect is the same, ie a dollar imports more expensive. In this context, 'the average rate at which transactions take place outside will increase and that's a devaluation that has an impact on prices. "

Position and opinion of Dr. Maza Zavala and others.

Deeply concerned that manifests the former director of the Central Bank of Venezuela, Domingo Maza Zavala in the 2009 national budget provides for a 42% increase in the salaries of senior government officials, in times where there has been talk of austerity in public spending. He notes that the authorities should seek efficiency in government. "There's no need as a priority to build new hospitals and schools, the important thing at present is that the existing hospitals operate and are well catered for, that doctors are well paid, that schools are properly installed and that teachers are well paid , because it seems that the Venezuelans are the lowest paid among all Cuban personnel are serving in the country?.

Dr. Zavala added that given the global financial crisis the national government should amend the national budget of the coming year.

cuasieconomista.wordpress.com notes, "The 2009 budget should be a reflection of the will of rectification and reorganization of the finances that the government must show specific and the possibility of imminent and that the international financial crisis, which probably economic recession will become, is imposed on countries like Venezuela?. Another aspect that can not be ignored is how I remember Dr. Zavala, is in relation to the construction of 12 500 new homes are covered in the budget 2009 and that its implementation would be conditional on the creation of socialist cities, Domingo Maza Zavala said that "cities are not in themselves socialists, socialism exists in the mode of producing, distributing, exchanging and living and that can not be created from the overnight, it is simply the desire to do so but a whole historical process as objective and subjective conditions so determined but not by the will of a ruler or a system?. He said it is difficult to build a house in the country, "seems to be one of the most difficult that would have the government?. In his view, the government could build houses made of an elementary way, leaving the care of those who complete it will inhabit.

"It's a clear demonstration of the failure of the inefficiency of the current government that everything she undertakes not ends?

To this is added another very significant in this analysis, as stated by Dr. Zavala, "If there is no review for adjustment of wages and money wages of the majority of public administration staff and workers who depend in some form or another public sector, the result will be a fall in effective demand for consumer goods and services and therefore also fall market boom and the rate of economic growth and increase unemployment and social unrest ? He stressed that given the expected inflation rate for next year, "not going to be 15% as Dr. Ali Rodriguez Araque (Minister of Economy and Finance), but at least a 28 or 30%?. He emphasized that the lack of provision for adjustment of pay, constitutes a drawback for companies active that could be created because of the fiscal year 2009

Meanwhile Edgar C. Otálvora brings us, international analysts have suggested that international reserves and various funds managed at the discretion of Chávez, would serve to alleviate the crisis at least the year 2009. However, the macroeconomic situation will be greatly affected by the loss of economic momentum of high tax revenues. Not only expected a strong slowdown of the economy, but some analysts suggest that the recession will be accompanied by a violent rise in prices as the Government may not allocate resources to subsidize food, as until now done via imports an artificially strong bolivar. Unemployment and famine would be on the horizon of Venezuela in the coming year.

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